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January/February 2024 | Nontethelelo Ramantswana

REAL -TIME WILDFIRE SPREAD PREDICTION TECHNOLOGY

Fire management

Fire protection

Background
During the recent years, the wildfire seasons in Europe have been devastating and leading to evacuations and destruction of infrastructure. The unpredictable nature of these fires underscores a crucial issue: without a reliable risk management tool for more effective fire response, the safety of ecosystems and people remain in jeopardy. Existing satellite coverage has afternoon gaps, during the peak hot time of the day. “Fire Spread Product” emerged as a vital solution.

What is it?
OroraTech’s Fire Spread Product is designed to track and predict wildfire movement in real time. It uses latest fire data and forecasts the potential path of the wildfire in the upcoming hours.

How it works?
Real-time predictions require up to the minute data to establish an initial fire front. The product incorporates the fire drivers that is mainly wind direction and speed, slope and elevation and available fuel. This makes it possible to project the fire’s spread in the upcoming hours, thereby predicting fire perimeter per timestep and size of the fire perimeter in hectares.

  • Wind direction and speed: This information is obtained from reputable forecasting institutions. There is also an option to incorporate local, higher-resolution forecasts or superior weather model the clients are subscribed to.
  • Slope and elevation: The fire simulation accounts for these factors and in-depth global topography insight to predict the fire path accurately.
  • Available fuel: This data is obtained from mapping Earth’s surface materials, existing product. This data helps predict fire behavior when encountering different fuels. Of critical importance, real-time predictions depend on real-time data.


Other interesting information about Fire Spread
• Effortlessly predict the fire path for the next hours
• User-friendly interface and quick predictions
• Easy to use and suitable for diverse audience
• Real-time predictions, enabling frontline responders to plan routes and deploy resources effectively
• Enhances strategic planning and mitigation efforts

Benefits:
Timely and accurate information: The Fire Spread product provides insights on the fire behavior within certain timeframe, superb predictions even in areas where direct observations are challenging due to weather conditions or satellite limitations.
Comprehensive Approach: The model incorporates essential fire drivers i.e. wind patterns, land coverage and slope data to accurately predict how fire will behave.
Proven Reliability: Based on the reputable Rothermel model, fire spread product uses a well- established and widely used fire spread framework, ensuring reliability and accuracy in predicting wildfire spread.

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